GBP/USD climbed to 4-week highs just above 1.2300 on Tuesday before a limited correction back to the 1.2285 area while EUR/GBP dipped to lows near 0.9020.
Opposition parliamentary leaders held talks to discuss a strategy in order to block any government attempt to leave the EU without a deal.
The political stakes were increased again in Europe on Wednesday following reports that the government will look to suspend or prorogue parliament from around September 10th. Although parliament is usually suspended just before a Queen's Speech, it is very unusual to suspend parliament for that long. This move is assumed to be specifically designed to block parliament.
If parliament is suspended, MPs would not have time to approve the legislation to block a 'no-deal' outcome.
Under this scenario, the Queen's speech will be held on October 14th before the crucial EU Summit due to be held on October 17th.
If this move is confirmed, there will be a huge political row with severe political tensions. It is possible that resignations from the government will take place. Meanwhile, there is speculation that the opposition in the UK will trigger a vote of no-confidence in the government next week.
The sterling declined sharply following the reports with GBP/USD dipping to below 1.2200 with EUR/GBP strengthening to 0.9100.
It is guaranteed that sterling volatility will intensify in the short term with very choppy trading today and throughout the next few weeks. Given higher volatility, strong risk management on the sterling positions is essential.
If the government backs away from suspending parliament or there is strong evidence that a no-confidence vote will be won, the pound sterling will develop a rapid rally. Suspension would also increase pressure on the EU to make concessions.
從叢中的醜小鴨到美麗的天鵝,標普500指數自四月初的高度超買狀態轉變為如今的相當超賣狀態。自1950年以來,僅有六次出現24個交易日內上升18%或以上的情況。
週四將有相對較多的宏觀經濟事件安排,但很少有事件可能引發強烈的市場反應。歐元區和英國將公佈第一季度GDP的第二次估計值及工業生產報告。
英鎊/美元貨幣對在週三繼續其前一天開始的上升走勢。回顧週二,美國美元並沒有強勁的基本面理由出現大幅拋售。
流言四起。韓元的急劇上漲引發了市場揣測,認為華盛頓正在施壓其貿易夥伴以加強其貨幣。
小心你所希望的。市場將日本在2025/2026財年GDP預測減半解讀為日本央行不會恢復隔夜利率上調週期的信號。
由於核心通脹的增長略顯強勁,歐元區四月的通脹率保持在2.2%,稍高於2.1%的預測。這一上升部分歸因於復活節的影響,通常會刺激消費需求。
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