07.04.2025 05:20 AM上週五，全球市場繼續下滑——儘管程度不一：S&P 500 指數下跌了 5.97%，石油下跌了 7.41%，大宗商品貨幣平均損失約 2%，5年期美國國債收益率從 3.73% 降至 3.55%。然而，歐元僅下跌了 0.80%，而美元對日元的匯率上升了 0.58%。今天，歐元以68點的向下缺口開盤，並在一個小時十五分鐘內填補了這個缺口。自今早以來，所有工具——包括S&P 500 期貨——都在上升。我們認為，市場基本吸收了週末中國對美國商品新徵 34% 關稅的短期影響。
在日線圖上，歐元已突破1.0955的水平。Marlin指標在穩定在正區域後，準備恢復增長。若突破最近的阻力位1.1027，將打開通往1.1110/50目標區間的道路。從那裡起，可能會朝向2023年7月高點1.1276移動，那時有可能會與股市同步逆轉，引發新一輪的歐元走弱。這將呈現一種典型的危機風格相關性。
在四小時圖上，Marlin 振盪器顯示出從中性零線逆轉的跡象。價格已鞏固在 1.0955 水平之上。我們預計將繼續增長，朝著 1.1027 的第一目標前進，隨後將進一步進入 1.1110/50 目標區間。
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