Wave Analysis

The 4-hour wave structure for BTC/USD is clear. Following a long and complex corrective structure a-b-c-d-e, which developed between March 14 and August 5, a new impulsive wave began to form, already showing a five-wave structure. Judging by the size of the first wave, the fifth wave could be shortened. Therefore, I do not anticipate Bitcoin to rise above $110,000–$115,000 in the coming months.

Wave 4 has formed a three-wave pattern, confirming the current wave count's validity. Since wave 5 has likely begun, buying opportunities should be sought. However, as noted earlier, this wave could end soon—or already be over. The news backdrop continues to support Bitcoin's growth due to constant reports of new investments from institutional traders, governments of certain countries, and pension funds. While some of these reports may not be accurate, demand is growing. The question is: how long will it continue?

Trump helped Bitcoin, Trump hurt Bitcoin

The BTC/USD exchange rate initially dropped by $4,000 on Monday, then increased by $9,000, and subsequently decreased by $9,000. For Bitcoin, such volatility is not unusual. The inauguration of Donald Trump undoubtedly triggered yesterday's market storm. In his speech, the new U.S. president announced plans to declare a state of emergency on the Mexican border, rename the Gulf of Mexico to the "American Gulf," eliminate all non-traditional genders, reclaim control of the Panama Canal, declare an energy emergency, and end all wars worldwide. "The Golden Age of America begins today," Trump declared.

While Trump may attempt to deliver on some of these promises, his first term casts doubt on the likelihood of fulfilling them all. Many of his declarations from four years ago remained unfulfilled. Trump's ambitious plans are tempered by the reality that he is neither a unilateral leader of the U.S. nor the "ruler of the world." For markets, the key will be the specific programs Trump implements and their impact on the economy. Bitcoin and the dollar are influenced by actual economic changes or market expectations of such changes. From my perspective, there are no substantial reasons for Bitcoin to continue its ascent post-inauguration. Wave 5 appears to be shortened and complete.

General Conclusions

Based on this analysis, I conclude that Bitcoin's growth is nearing its end. While this may not be a popular opinion, wave 5 could be shortened. Afterward, a collapse or a new complex correction is likely. Therefore, I do not recommend buying cryptocurrency at this time.

If wave 5 begins to take on an extended five-wave form, it must include a corrective wave 2. This wave could provide insights into Bitcoin's potential growth in the first half of the year, allowing for adjustments to the forecast.

On a higher wave scale, a five-wave upward structure is evident. A corrective downward structure or a bearish trend segment may soon develop.

Key Principles of My Analysis

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are challenging to trade and often subject to change.
2. If market conditions are unclear, it is better to stay out.
3. There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Always use Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can and should be combined with other analytical methods and trading strategies.