Analysis of Friday's Trades

1H Chart of GBP/USD

On Friday, the GBP/USD pair showed extremely low volatility, yet the British pound steadily crept upward even with such market conditions. In fact, over the past week, the price only declined on Wednesday—and even then, only during the second half of the day. As a reminder, Wednesday saw the release of the UK inflation report, which has fueled expectations of a potential rate cut by the Bank of England at its next meeting. However, as we can see, this factor had only a short-lived negative effect on the pound. On all other days, the pound steadily appreciated, even though Trump did not introduce any new trade tariffs.

5M Chart of GBP/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe, Friday's movement was mostly sideways and weak due to Good Friday celebrations. The total daily volatility was just 41 pips. Entering the market with such low activity didn't make much sense. Throughout the day, the price ignored the only key level in its path—1.3272.

Trading Strategy for Monday:

On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD has long been in a position to begin a downtrend, but the market continues to focus solely on Trump, which is why the pound keeps slowly pushing higher. As a result, the pair's future movements still depend entirely on the U.S. president and his decisions and nothing else.

On Monday, GBP/USD may continue trading higher despite no valid reasons. Trump isn't rushing to impose new tariffs, UK inflation is falling, and the British economy remains weak. Nonetheless, traders seem uninterested in any of this for now.

On the 5-minute timeframe, you can currently trade based on the following levels: 1.2613, 1.2680–1.2685, 1.2723, 1.2791–1.2798, 1.2848–1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2980–1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3102–1.3107, 1.3145–1.3167, 1.3203, 1.3272, 1.3365, 1.3428–1.3440. No notable events are scheduled for Monday in the U.S. or the UK. Volatility is unlikely to be high today, but the pound may continue its upward movement.

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.