empty
01.04.2025 11:32 AM
EUR/USD. April 1. Traders Are Confused and Unwilling to Take Risks

On Monday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement and even rebounded from the support zone at 1.0781–1.0797. However, believing in a further rise of the euro is becoming increasingly difficult. According to wave analysis, the trend has turned bearish, meaning we should expect a decline. The recent growth of the pair is merely a corrective pullback. Therefore, I expect a consolidation below the 1.0781–1.0797 zone and a further fall toward the Fibonacci levels at 1.0734 and 1.0622.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave pattern on the hourly chart has shifted. The last completed upward wave barely broke the previous high, and the most recent downward wave broke below the previous low. Thus, the waves currently indicate a trend reversal to the bearish side. Donald Trump introduced new tariffs last week, which caused the bears to retreat again. Trump is likely to impose more tariffs this week, allowing the bulls another attempt at an advance. However, bulls are weakening with each passing day.

The fundamental backdrop on Monday did not support the bulls. Retail sales in Germany exceeded expectations, but the more important inflation report showed a slowdown to 2.2% y/y. While this figure matched forecasts, the fact that inflation is now nearing the ECB's target level cannot be overlooked. This suggests the ECB's monetary policy may become even more dovish—bad news for the euro. Trump's trade wars have been supporting the bulls for several weeks, but that alone is not enough to sustain continued euro purchases and dollar selling. Traders have already priced in the tariff news, and now other economic drivers are needed for this strategy to remain viable. At the moment, there are none. A large volume of important statistics will be released this week, starting in just a few hours with eurozone inflation data. If inflation also slows, the bears will resume their attack.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair made a slight upward move, but I expect a new reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and a further decline toward the 50.0% correction level at 1.0696 and the 38.2% level at 1.0575. While a major drop in the euro is unlikely for now, a 200-point decline would still be timely. No divergence signals are observed on any indicators today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

During the most recent reporting week, professional traders opened 844 new long positions and closed 5,256 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group turned bullish again—thanks to Donald Trump. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 190,000, while short positions have decreased to 124,000.

For twenty weeks in a row, large players had been offloading euros, but for the past seven weeks, they've been reducing short positions and building long ones. While the divergence in ECB and Fed monetary policy continues to favor the U.S. dollar, Trump's policy is becoming a more influential factor for traders, as it may have a dovish impact on the FOMC's approach and even lead to a recession in the U.S. economy.

News Calendar for the U.S. and Eurozone:

  • Eurozone – German Manufacturing PMI (07:55 UTC)
  • Eurozone – Manufacturing PMI (08:00 UTC)
  • Eurozone – Consumer Price Index (09:00 UTC)
  • Eurozone – Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde (12:30 UTC)
  • U.S. – S&P Manufacturing PMI (13:45 UTC)
  • U.S. – ISM Manufacturing PMI (14:00 UTC)
  • U.S. – JOLTS Job Openings (14:00 UTC)

On April 1, the economic calendar includes a large number of important events at various times throughout the day. The fundamental backdrop may strongly influence market sentiment all day long.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations:

Selling the pair is possible today after a bounce from the 1.0857 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.0797 and 1.0734, or after a close below the 1.0781–1.0797 zone. Buying will be possible after a bounce from the 1.0781–1.0797 zone on the hourly chart with a target at 1.0857.

Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.0529–1.0213 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

Recommended Stories

Ramalan untuk EUR/USD pada 20 Mei, 2025

Pada hari Isnin, pasangan EUR/USD berbalik memihak kepada euro dan kembali untuk kali ketiga ke zon rintangan 1.1265–1.1282. Lantunan semula baru dari zon ini tidak menyebabkan sebarang pengaktifan dari pasaran

Samir Klishi 11:29 2025-05-20 UTC+2

Ramalan untuk GBP/USD pada 20 Mei 2025

Pada carta setiap jam, pasangan GBP/USD pada hari Isnin berbalik memihak kepada pound British dan bertahan di atas zon rintangan 1.3344–1.3357, yang sebelum ini menimbulkan kesukaran serius bagi pergerakan menaik

Samir Klishi 11:22 2025-05-20 UTC+2

Analisis Teknikal Pergerakan Harga Intraday Pasangan Mata Wang Komoditi USD/CAD, Selasa 20 Mei 2025.

Jika kita merujuk kepada carta 4 jam bagi pasangan mata wang komoditi USD/CAD, kelihatan terdapat Perbezaan antara pergerakan harganya dengan penunjuk Pengayun Stochastic. Walaupun ketika ini Loonie masih berada dalam

Arief Makmur 08:19 2025-05-20 UTC+2

Analisis Teknikal Pergerakan Harga Harian Instrumen Komoditi Platinum, Selasa 20 Mei 2025.

Dengan kemunculan Konvergensi antara pergerakan harga instrumen komoditi Platinum dengan penunjuk Pengayun Stochastic dan disokong oleh pergerakan harganya yang bergerak di atas WMA (210) yang juga mempunyai kecenderungan yang menurun

Arief Makmur 08:19 2025-05-20 UTC+2

Ramalan EUR/USD untuk 20 Mei 2025

Selepas penurunan taraf kredit A.S. dari AAA ke Aa1 oleh Moody's pada hari Jumaat lepas, semalam menyaksikan penurunan taraf bank-bank utama A.S. juga—Bank of America, JPMorgan, dan Wells Fargo daripada

Laurie Bailey 05:08 2025-05-20 UTC+2

Ramalan GBP/USD untuk 20 Mei 2025

Pound Sterling British ditutup pada hari Isnin dengan kenaikan 81 pip. Harga telah mengukuh di atas tahap rintangan 1.3311 dan kini menuju ke arah 1.3433. Penembusan di atas tahap

Laurie Bailey 05:08 2025-05-20 UTC+2

Ramalan EUR/CAD untuk 20 Mei, 2025

Dengan pergerakan menaik yang kukuh semalam, pasangan EUR/CAD telah menembusi kedua-dua garis penunjuk (garis imbangan dan MACD) serta paras reaksi Fibonacci 200%. Sesi dagangan hari ini juga dibuka di atas

Laurie Bailey 05:08 2025-05-20 UTC+2

Ramalan Minyak bagi 20 Mei 2025

Kenaikan harga minyak semalam adalah secara teknikalnya lemah — garisan MACD mahupun garis terbenam dalam saluran harga menurun tidak berjaya dicapai. Penutupan harian berlaku di bawah garis imbangan, dan pembukaan

Laurie Bailey 05:08 2025-05-20 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Analisis dan Ramalan

Pada permulaan minggu baru, pasangan EUR/USD telah memperoleh momentum menaik berikutan kelemahan dolar AS. Dari sudut pandangan teknikal, penembusan minggu lalu di bawah Purata Pergerakan Sederhana (SMA) 200 tempoh pada

Irina Yanina 17:58 2025-05-19 UTC+2

Isyarat Dagangan untuk EUR/USD bagi 19-21 Mei 2025: jual di bawah 1.1285 (200 EMA - GAP)

Rancangan dagangan kami untuk beberapa jam akan datang adalah menjual euro di bawah puncak saluran aliran menurun, dengan sasaran pada 1.1189, dan untuk menutup jurang yang ditinggalkan minggu lepas sekitar

Dimitrios Zappas 14:30 2025-05-19 UTC+2
Tidak boleh bertanya sekarang?
Tanya soalan anda di Ruangan bersembang.
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaTrade anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.