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The test of the 1.2786 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upside potential. The second test of 1.2786, when the MACD was in the overbought area, allowed scenario #2 for a sell trade to be executed, resulting in a decline of over 40 pips.
Following news that the UK Chancellor would hold talks with senior officials regarding the tariff crisis, the pound strengthened. However, the GBP/USD pair's growth was mainly driven by renewed speculation that the U.S. economy could soon begin showing signs of a recession, weakening the dollar's position.
Today, during the first half of the day, the summary and minutes of the Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee meeting will be published. Close attention must be paid to the details of the vote on interest rates and any indications regarding future policy. Markets will analyze the tone of the statements for signs of how confident committee members are in reducing inflation to the 2% target. Discussions around the impact of global economic factors and the potential effects of U.S. tariffs will also be reviewed. Investors are hoping for clarity on the timing of possible monetary policy easing. Any signals suggesting the Bank of England is ready to act independently of the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank will have significant implications for the pound's exchange rate.
For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1:
Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching the entry point around 1.2857 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.2924 (thicker green line). Around 1.2924, I plan to exit the buy trades and open sell trades in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip pullback). Today's rise in the pound could continue as part of the morning correction.
Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise.
Scenario #2:
I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2820 level while the MACD is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and trigger an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.2857 and 1.2924 can be expected.
Scenario #1:
I plan to sell the pound after the price breaks below the 1.2820 level (red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 1.2761, where I plan to exit the sell trades and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip move in the opposite direction). Caution is advised when selling the pound—enter as high as possible.
Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD is below the zero line and just beginning to fall from it.
Scenario #2:
I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2857 level while the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the upside potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.2820 and 1.2761 can be expected.
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*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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